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T&O needs a good political thread

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Topic: T&O needs a good political thread
Posted By: SSOK
Subject: T&O needs a good political thread
Date Posted: 27 September 2020 at 12:01pm
I truly do not belive the Democrats put any thought into giving the nod to Joe Biden. I belive that if they drug a charismatic, moderate nobody mayor from a small unknown city they'd have a much better chance of beating Donald Trump.

Perhaps I'm biased but I believe that the democrat leadership is an ignorant echo chamber and it will cost them another election.

Amy Coney Barrett is a terrible nominee.

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Replies:
Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 27 September 2020 at 10:02pm
Yeah, just like the republicans have 20 candidates in 2016, I don't know how the democrats picked him out of their 20 candidates. 


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 28 September 2020 at 3:18pm
I'm getting a big kick out of all the Democrats running around wagging their fingers at the Republicans who blocked Obama nominating Garland.

You mean the ruthless Republican political machine that has spent the last 40 years only caring about consolidating power in order to keep billionaires happy doesn't care if you point out they're being hypocritical? Shoot, next thing you'll tell me that nice wallet inspector I just met isn't coming back. 




Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 30 September 2020 at 1:37am
Wow, that debate was depressing.


Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 02 October 2020 at 2:09am
Hmm, Trump has the China virus


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 06 October 2020 at 2:45pm
I have, over the course of the last seven months or so, read a bunch of books about Trump. I've read both of the Woodward books, I managed to get through John Bolton's book, I read Mary Trump's book, I read that one the Washington Post folks wrote, A Very Stable Genius, I even went back and re-read Fire and Fury

I was trying to find something that explains Trump. Some kind of deeper understanding of his motivations and influences, his rationale, the way he processes information and makes decisions. 

When I read the equivalent books about Obama, they shed a lot of light on things that were not always apparent in his administration, but you could sometimes see in his decisions. He was almost cripplingly conflict averse. He cared so much about his image as an intelligent bipartisan leader that he pretty much abandoned most of the ideological platform that got him elected in the first place. 

You pick up these little quirks about the presidents themselves from books written about their presidencies, especially when the writer can interview the subject and their inner circle. W Bush valued decisiveness, even when it morphed into stubbornness. Clinton fetishized compromise. HW Bush felt alienated. Reagan was a chronic delegator. Carter was a micro-manager and meddled in his cabinet. 

As I read through the second Woodward book, I'm left with the truth I was looking for in the other books all along: There is nothing deeper. There is no complexity. There is no deeper ideology or belief system or quirk to be found. Trump is a giant oafish dumbass. That's all there is. 

He was born into a wealthy family and has stumbled upwards his entire life. He's literally never been told no. His father semi-legally gave him hundreds of millions of dollars at a young age. He almost assuredly used money and someone taking standardized tests for him to get into Wharton considering his awful educational record up to that point. He was given fake property development jobs by his father and somehow failed, consistently, at nearly everything he ever tried. His own ventures consistently fail and go bankrupt. He has never had to face any consequence for any of these failures and bankruptcies because the banks realize they'll never be paid back if he does, so he keeps getting loans. 

The consistencies pile up in every book -- meaning, either Bob Woodward, John Bolton, Mary Trump and Michael Wolff all got together and coordinated, or these are likely true: Trump has almost no capacity for intelligent thought. His perspective of the world mostly comes from watching upwards of five hours of Fox News and OANN each day. He does not read and might be semi-illiterate. His staffers have to highlight his own name in briefing packets for him to give the information even the slightest bit of attention. He does not pay attention during meetings, instead going around the room and poking each member of whatever meeting it happens to be into complimenting him. He is a chronic liar. He has zero understanding of basic civics and government operation. 

About 70% of Woodward's new book is a near-transcript of his interviews with Trump. It's chilling, not because of anything evil Trump is saying, but because it finally begins setting in -- he's just a dumbass. Every time Woodward asks Trump about anything involving planning, or motivation, or deeper thought, Trump's response is either 1) A campaign slogan non-sequitur, 2) Something he heard on television, or 3) A lie. 








Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 07 October 2020 at 12:13pm
That is more terrifying than having a leader with a sinister plan.


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 07 October 2020 at 1:01pm
At least a sinister plan is still a plan. 


Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 02 November 2020 at 10:13pm
The next 72 hours will be fun.

I'd be very surprised if we have a clear victor Wednesday morning.

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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 03 November 2020 at 11:11am
I think it will be longer than 72hrs.


Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 03 November 2020 at 5:54pm
Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

I think it will be longer than 72hrs.


I doubt it'll be settled until December at least.

It'll be Gore V Bush all over again.

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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 03 November 2020 at 11:45pm
Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 


Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 04 November 2020 at 4:13am
Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 


California ex-pats will do that.

So will Texas in 10-15 years.

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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 04 November 2020 at 9:46am
Originally posted by SSOK SSOK wrote:

Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 


California ex-pats will do that.

So will Texas in 10-15 years.

Oh I'm aware. If climate change wasn't enough reason for me to move, the unattainable housing prices will.


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 04 November 2020 at 1:38pm
I've totally lost track of the various equations, but I think if Biden picks up Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, where he's leading, that gets him to 270 regardless of what Pennsylvania does. Wisconsin and Michigan, at this point, only have mail-in ballots to count, and the majority of those seem to be from very reliably Democratic parts of the state. 

Pennsylvania is leaning Trump right now, but they only have ~65% of their vote counts in vs. Michigan and Wisconsin, who have both already reported over 95%. I think most of the votes left to count in Pennsylvania are from the Philadelphia metro area, which should lead Biden, but I don't know the volume. 

I have not the slightest clue what the situation in Nevada is in terms of where mail-ins came from. 

I guess they have not technically called Georgia yet, but Biden is down 80k votes with 96% reporting. I'm not sure Biden has the numbers on that one. 

It's looking likely that the final EC score will be Biden 270, Trump 268 if Trump carries Pennsylvania, or Biden 290, Trump 248 if Biden carries Pennsylvania. 

But then again, if there are inevitable court challenges about vote counting, who knows who actually wins. 
 


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 04 November 2020 at 1:44pm
Fun fact: If not for Nebraska deciding to split their Electoral College points up and allocate them to candidates proportionally, there is a very high likelihood this election ends in a 269-269 tie. 


Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 04 November 2020 at 7:18pm
Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:

Fun fact: If not for Nebraska deciding to split their Electoral College points up and allocate them to candidates proportionally, there is a very high likelihood this election ends in a 269-269 tie. 


I'm already considering picking up smoking to deal with my Election anxiety, so an outcome like this might actually seem preferable. 2020 has been a year for the history books as it is.

On a side note, the devils lettuce was legalized in my ex-home state of NJ.Rather interesting although I won't be partaking.

We can all plan a forum-wide trip to Oregon for some crystal meth now too!

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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 05 November 2020 at 1:57am
I hope we can finally get rid of the electoral system.

Arizona passed legal weed too, wish that happened when I used to partake haha.

Happy to see Oregon is treating addiction as a health issue, not a criminal issue.


Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 05 November 2020 at 7:36am
Montana and one of the Dakotas passed recreational cannabis as well. 

There are weird dynamics in play that, to me, represent how bad the current Democratic Party is at running candidates who can campaign primarily on policy issues and not just not being the Republican. 

Trump easily won Florida for a Republican Party that would do away with the minimum wage if it could. 

Those exact same Florida voters passed a $15 minimum wage amendment at 61%. 

Give people a reason to vote for their own economic interests and they'll do it, but that only works if you actually build a serious policy-driven campaign. 




Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 05 November 2020 at 1:22pm
I was disappointed California voted for the pro gig economy initiative.


Posted By: Eville
Date Posted: 06 November 2020 at 9:47am
2021 Looking up already!

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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 07 November 2020 at 1:07pm
Welp that part is over, now for the most dangerous lame duck in history.


Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 08 November 2020 at 12:13am
I did not think Joe Biden was electable and clearly I was wrong.

I remember the public opinion of Joe at the end of the Obama administration seemed to be that as the goofy uncle that nobody took seriously. I remember his televised advice to shoot your double barrel shotgun out of your front door.

I also thought his only selling point to the American people was "I'm not Donald Trump" and that may be all he needed.

I wish his presidency well, and I simply hope for as little change to my life as possible.

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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 09 November 2020 at 9:05pm
I hate to say it, but if any of the recounts flip, it's going to be a messy, messy 3 months.

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Posted By: Kayback
Date Posted: 11 November 2020 at 6:18am
Tinfoil had time.

I honestly think the Dems won the election. There isn't going to be any big upset, even if there is voter fraud it isn't anywhere near the levels needed to win key states.

Yes there was a jump in order of magnitude of absentee votes but that's to be expected in a pandemic.

But I don't see Joe Biden lasting his 4 years. The complete cynic in me says by March he'll withdraw due to health issues and Tah Dash first female POTUS.

MAYBE he'll get 3.75 years and in the last few he'll retire to allow Harris into the hot seat to set her up for the 2024 run but she'll be the first female POTUS before the 2024 election.

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Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo. H = 2


Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 13 November 2020 at 11:27pm
Originally posted by Kayback Kayback wrote:

Tinfoil had time.

I honestly think the Dems won the election. There isn't going to be any big upset, even if there is voter fraud it isn't anywhere near the levels needed to win key states.

Yes there was a jump in order of magnitude of absentee votes but that's to be expected in a pandemic.

But I don't see Joe Biden lasting his 4 years. The complete cynic in me says by March he'll withdraw due to health issues and Tah Dash first female POTUS.

MAYBE he'll get 3.75 years and in the last few he'll retire to allow Harris into the hot seat to set her up for the 2024 run but she'll be the first female POTUS before the 2024 election.


That isn't very tinfoil-ish.

There is a strong emphasis on the Harris name in media. I never heard Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney, etc nearly as regularly as Biden/Harris. The VP role always took a distant back seat.

I don't think there is a secret plan to bail out, but the man is 78 years old. It could happen.

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Posted By: agentwhale007
Date Posted: 15 November 2020 at 10:49am
I don't think Biden will resign mid-term unless it's an emergency, but I don't think he'll run again in 2024. http://https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129" rel="nofollow - He already said as much last year. I imagine the party will run a 2024 primary with Harris as the presumptive nominee but with at least one other candidate likely running more on the left. I could also see a blue dog running more on the right, depending on how far Harris strays from Biden's center-right leanings. I cannot even begin to guess who those candidates will actually be. 

I also think Trump is going to begin immediately running for re-election as soon as his lame duck session is over. He'll campaign for four straight years. The big rally events were the only part of being president he liked. He's got his base that will probably never lose their loyalty to him as long as he's around. The GOP will probably run a big crowd again in 2024, and I have no idea what a second Trump primary is like, but I can't imagine it's much different from the first time. It's going to leave a lot of turds who barnacled themselves to Trump and his base in a weird spot, because they likely have already started setting up 2024 runs. Guys like Matt Gaetz, Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton. With Trump still in it for 2024, running against him could cost them dearly, and they might delay because of it. That would leave 2024 as Trump vs. the "moderate" Republicans.   




Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 15 November 2020 at 2:03pm
Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:

I don't think Biden will resign mid-term unless it's an emergency, but I don't think he'll run again in 2024. http://https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129" rel="nofollow - He already said as much last year. I imagine the party will run a 2024 primary with Harris as the presumptive nominee but with at least one other candidate likely running more on the left. I could also see a blue dog running more on the right, depending on how far Harris strays from Biden's center-right leanings. I cannot even begin to guess who those candidates will actually be. 

I also think Trump is going to begin immediately running for re-election as soon as his lame duck session is over. He'll campaign for four straight years. The big rally events were the only part of being president he liked. He's got his base that will probably never lose their loyalty to him as long as he's around. The GOP will probably run a big crowd again in 2024, and I have no idea what a second Trump primary is like, but I can't imagine it's much different from the first time. It's going to leave a lot of turds who barnacled themselves to Trump and his base in a weird spot, because they likely have already started setting up 2024 runs. Guys like Matt Gaetz, Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton. With Trump still in it for 2024, running against him could cost them dearly, and they might delay because of it. That would leave 2024 as Trump vs. the "moderate" Republicans.   



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-2024-election-campaign-biden-b1722521.html

Most importantly he'll start his own media empire to milk every cent out of his supporters for the next 4 years. 



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