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    Posted: 15 November 2020 at 2:03pm
Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:

I don't think Biden will resign mid-term unless it's an emergency, but I don't think he'll run again in 2024. He already said as much last year. I imagine the party will run a 2024 primary with Harris as the presumptive nominee but with at least one other candidate likely running more on the left. I could also see a blue dog running more on the right, depending on how far Harris strays from Biden's center-right leanings. I cannot even begin to guess who those candidates will actually be. 

I also think Trump is going to begin immediately running for re-election as soon as his lame duck session is over. He'll campaign for four straight years. The big rally events were the only part of being president he liked. He's got his base that will probably never lose their loyalty to him as long as he's around. The GOP will probably run a big crowd again in 2024, and I have no idea what a second Trump primary is like, but I can't imagine it's much different from the first time. It's going to leave a lot of turds who barnacled themselves to Trump and his base in a weird spot, because they likely have already started setting up 2024 runs. Guys like Matt Gaetz, Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton. With Trump still in it for 2024, running against him could cost them dearly, and they might delay because of it. That would leave 2024 as Trump vs. the "moderate" Republicans.   



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-2024-election-campaign-biden-b1722521.html

Most importantly he'll start his own media empire to milk every cent out of his supporters for the next 4 years. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 November 2020 at 10:49am
I don't think Biden will resign mid-term unless it's an emergency, but I don't think he'll run again in 2024. He already said as much last year. I imagine the party will run a 2024 primary with Harris as the presumptive nominee but with at least one other candidate likely running more on the left. I could also see a blue dog running more on the right, depending on how far Harris strays from Biden's center-right leanings. I cannot even begin to guess who those candidates will actually be. 

I also think Trump is going to begin immediately running for re-election as soon as his lame duck session is over. He'll campaign for four straight years. The big rally events were the only part of being president he liked. He's got his base that will probably never lose their loyalty to him as long as he's around. The GOP will probably run a big crowd again in 2024, and I have no idea what a second Trump primary is like, but I can't imagine it's much different from the first time. It's going to leave a lot of turds who barnacled themselves to Trump and his base in a weird spot, because they likely have already started setting up 2024 runs. Guys like Matt Gaetz, Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton. With Trump still in it for 2024, running against him could cost them dearly, and they might delay because of it. That would leave 2024 as Trump vs. the "moderate" Republicans.   


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SSOK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 November 2020 at 11:27pm
Originally posted by Kayback Kayback wrote:

Tinfoil had time.

I honestly think the Dems won the election. There isn't going to be any big upset, even if there is voter fraud it isn't anywhere near the levels needed to win key states.

Yes there was a jump in order of magnitude of absentee votes but that's to be expected in a pandemic.

But I don't see Joe Biden lasting his 4 years. The complete cynic in me says by March he'll withdraw due to health issues and Tah Dash first female POTUS.

MAYBE he'll get 3.75 years and in the last few he'll retire to allow Harris into the hot seat to set her up for the 2024 run but she'll be the first female POTUS before the 2024 election.


That isn't very tinfoil-ish.

There is a strong emphasis on the Harris name in media. I never heard Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney, etc nearly as regularly as Biden/Harris. The VP role always took a distant back seat.

I don't think there is a secret plan to bail out, but the man is 78 years old. It could happen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kayback Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 November 2020 at 6:18am
Tinfoil had time.

I honestly think the Dems won the election. There isn't going to be any big upset, even if there is voter fraud it isn't anywhere near the levels needed to win key states.

Yes there was a jump in order of magnitude of absentee votes but that's to be expected in a pandemic.

But I don't see Joe Biden lasting his 4 years. The complete cynic in me says by March he'll withdraw due to health issues and Tah Dash first female POTUS.

MAYBE he'll get 3.75 years and in the last few he'll retire to allow Harris into the hot seat to set her up for the 2024 run but she'll be the first female POTUS before the 2024 election.
Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo. H = 2
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tallen702 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 November 2020 at 9:05pm
I hate to say it, but if any of the recounts flip, it's going to be a messy, messy 3 months.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SSOK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 November 2020 at 12:13am
I did not think Joe Biden was electable and clearly I was wrong.

I remember the public opinion of Joe at the end of the Obama administration seemed to be that as the goofy uncle that nobody took seriously. I remember his televised advice to shoot your double barrel shotgun out of your front door.

I also thought his only selling point to the American people was "I'm not Donald Trump" and that may be all he needed.

I wish his presidency well, and I simply hope for as little change to my life as possible.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 November 2020 at 1:07pm
Welp that part is over, now for the most dangerous lame duck in history.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Eville Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 November 2020 at 9:47am
2021 Looking up already!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 November 2020 at 1:22pm
I was disappointed California voted for the pro gig economy initiative.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 November 2020 at 7:36am
Montana and one of the Dakotas passed recreational cannabis as well. 

There are weird dynamics in play that, to me, represent how bad the current Democratic Party is at running candidates who can campaign primarily on policy issues and not just not being the Republican. 

Trump easily won Florida for a Republican Party that would do away with the minimum wage if it could. 

Those exact same Florida voters passed a $15 minimum wage amendment at 61%. 

Give people a reason to vote for their own economic interests and they'll do it, but that only works if you actually build a serious policy-driven campaign. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 November 2020 at 1:57am
I hope we can finally get rid of the electoral system.

Arizona passed legal weed too, wish that happened when I used to partake haha.

Happy to see Oregon is treating addiction as a health issue, not a criminal issue.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SSOK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 November 2020 at 7:18pm
Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:

Fun fact: If not for Nebraska deciding to split their Electoral College points up and allocate them to candidates proportionally, there is a very high likelihood this election ends in a 269-269 tie. 


I'm already considering picking up smoking to deal with my Election anxiety, so an outcome like this might actually seem preferable. 2020 has been a year for the history books as it is.

On a side note, the devils lettuce was legalized in my ex-home state of NJ.Rather interesting although I won't be partaking.

We can all plan a forum-wide trip to Oregon for some crystal meth now too!

Edited by SSOK - 04 November 2020 at 7:18pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 November 2020 at 1:44pm
Fun fact: If not for Nebraska deciding to split their Electoral College points up and allocate them to candidates proportionally, there is a very high likelihood this election ends in a 269-269 tie. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote agentwhale007 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 November 2020 at 1:38pm
I've totally lost track of the various equations, but I think if Biden picks up Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, where he's leading, that gets him to 270 regardless of what Pennsylvania does. Wisconsin and Michigan, at this point, only have mail-in ballots to count, and the majority of those seem to be from very reliably Democratic parts of the state. 

Pennsylvania is leaning Trump right now, but they only have ~65% of their vote counts in vs. Michigan and Wisconsin, who have both already reported over 95%. I think most of the votes left to count in Pennsylvania are from the Philadelphia metro area, which should lead Biden, but I don't know the volume. 

I have not the slightest clue what the situation in Nevada is in terms of where mail-ins came from. 

I guess they have not technically called Georgia yet, but Biden is down 80k votes with 96% reporting. I'm not sure Biden has the numbers on that one. 

It's looking likely that the final EC score will be Biden 270, Trump 268 if Trump carries Pennsylvania, or Biden 290, Trump 248 if Biden carries Pennsylvania. 

But then again, if there are inevitable court challenges about vote counting, who knows who actually wins. 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 November 2020 at 9:46am
Originally posted by SSOK SSOK wrote:

Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 


California ex-pats will do that.

So will Texas in 10-15 years.

Oh I'm aware. If climate change wasn't enough reason for me to move, the unattainable housing prices will.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SSOK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 November 2020 at 4:13am
Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 


California ex-pats will do that.

So will Texas in 10-15 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 November 2020 at 11:45pm
Holy moly, AZ turned blue. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tallen702 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 November 2020 at 5:54pm
Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

I think it will be longer than 72hrs.


I doubt it'll be settled until December at least.

It'll be Gore V Bush all over again.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote impulse418 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 November 2020 at 11:11am
I think it will be longer than 72hrs.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SSOK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 November 2020 at 10:13pm
The next 72 hours will be fun.

I'd be very surprised if we have a clear victor Wednesday morning.
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